# Submission to the Strategic Examination of R&D discussion paper

With Darcy W.E. Allen, Aaron M. Lane, and Jason Potts1

Dear expert panel,

We are a group of academic economists and legal scholars with a specialisation in innovation and the development and adoption of frontier technology. The Strategic Examination of Research and Development discussion paper underlines that Australia’s innovation system is one of underperformance and malinvestment.

This is not the first inquiry to investigate and underline Australia’s innovation system underperformance. Each has found the same deficiencies in the system that the Expert Panel seeks to understand:

  • In 1995 the Industry Commission found a need to “raise the social and economic payoff from public sector R\&D by achieving a wider external influence over what research gets done” and increase cost effectiveness (Industry Commission 1995)
  • In 2007 the Productivity Commission found that there were “major improvements” needed across the board and that research commercialisation was fraught with misaligned incentives and bureaucratic barriers (Productivity Commission 2007)
  • The Cutler Review found “shortcomings in the institutional framework that underpins the innovation system” (Cutler 2008).
  • In 2015 the Commonwealth Senate Economics References Committee inquiry into Australia’s Innovation System found that “Australia performs well in research”, but “such innovation is not developed into tangible wealth creation” (Senate Economics References Committee 2015).
  • In 2016 Joint Select Committee on Trade and Investment Growth Inquiry into Australia’s Future in Research and Innovation also underlined Australia’s underperformance in converting research into market ready innovation (Joint Select Committee on Trade and Investment Growth 2016)

It will be tempting for the expert panel to travel down the same paths as its predecessors. Australia’s innovation system consists of a large network of publicly funded organisations that rely on grants and subsidies as their base revenue model.

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Information and markets for a circular economy

With Darcy W. E. Allen

Submission to the Productivity Commission’s interim report on Australia’s circular economy: Unlocking the opportunities.

Dear Commissioners,

We write to you as academic economists and policy experts regarding your interim report, Australia’s circular economy: Unlocking the opportunities.1 Our argument is that the report misframes the central challenge. It treats the transition to a circular economy primarily as a problem of government intervention, overlooking the core economic problem: missing markets and the pervasive loss of information about goods over their lifecycle. Achieving a more circular economy requires enabling entrepreneurship and market creation, not more top-down control or funding.

Centrally planned economies and top-down regulatory approaches struggle or fail to effectively ‘close the loop’ on industrial by-products, largely because they lack the localised knowledge and dynamic adaptability inherent in market systems.2 Waste is a problem of information loss and missing markets – that is, a lack of detailed and trusted information about potential mutually beneficial trades.

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Institutional acceleration

With Darcy W.E. Allen and Jason Potts. Forthcoming at Cambridge University Press.

This Element develops a theory of institutional acceleration to explain the transformation to a digital economy through a cluster of frontier technologies: artificial intelligence, blockchain, quantum computing, cryptography, and low-earth orbit infrastructure. Unlike previous technological revolutions, these technologies transform not how we organise things, but how we coordinate economic activity. The authors’ supertransition thesis explains why these digital technologies shouldn’t be understood in isolation, but rather should be understood in how they combine to create new institutional possibilities, leading to more open, complex, and global economic systems. Drawing on evolutionary economics and institutional theory, this Element shows how this evolutionary process is reshaping our institutional economic architecture. Ultimately, institutional acceleration drives greater computation and knowledge into our economic systems.

(Will be) available here

Response to CP 381 Updates to INFO225: Digital assets: Financial products and services

Response to a request to comment on an ASIC inquiry into the regulation of digital assets. With Darcy Allen. Available in PDF here.

Summary: Today we are living through a deep shift in our digital economic institutions. Crypto and digital assets might look like an isolated example, but they underpin a broader stack of innovations and technological trajectories. We have written widely about the opportunities from artificial intelligence, advanced cryptography and the low earth orbit economy. Each of these technologies are reshaping markets and spawning new industries. A diversity of digital assets will play an important role in accelerating, funding and governing their development.

In the absence of legislative clarity — or even non-binding guidance clarity — Australians will not capture these opportunities. We are not raising some hypothetical concern. While Australia debates how a regulator might interpret traditional financial law for crypto assets, other nations are establishing clear, forward-looking regulatory frameworks. The risk is not just that Australia will fall behind — we have already done that — it is that our approach is destined to become obsolete in real time.

We conclude that:

  • Guidance is a poor substitute for clear legislation and that ASIC should use their position to advocate for timely, clear legislation.
  • There are fundamental limits on regulatory enforcement in a permissionless, decentralised, global and open economy.
  • Trying to squeeze digital assets into existing regulatory frameworks distorts the economy and incentivises regulatory arbitrage.
  • Investors in digital assets have specific needs that have not been contemplated by current practices under the Corporations Act.

Donald Trump is right. Australia has been free-riding on US tech

Published in the Australian Financial Review, 25 February 2025

Over the weekend the Trump administration launched what appears to be a devastating blow against large swathes of the Albanese government’s policy agenda.

Under the heading “Prevent the Unfair Exploitation of American Innovation”, a presidential memorandum declares that it will retaliate with tariffs against countries that penalise US technology companies with taxes, fines, regulations or adverse policies.

This is a problem because penalising American companies has become the bedrock of Australia’s technology policy.

Already last week the Albanese government pre-emptively decided to go slow on its media bargaining code – which, in one iteration, was going to tax companies such as Google and Meta – out of fear of how Donald Trump would respond.

But that’s just the most obvious example where Australian law targets US tech firms.

The Trump policy statement would seem to capture the digital platforms competition policy (currently being developed by Treasury), the under-16-year-old social media ban (passed in an absurd hurry before Christmas), the misinformation bill (withdrawn, but likely to be revisited if there is a minority Labor government with teal support), local content requirements on streaming platforms (stalled but apparently still a government priority) and our freelancing eSafety commissioner, which has given Australia so much embarrassing international attention.

In almost every one these regulatory frameworks, firms have to be specifically named in law to be regulated, or the rules drawn so precisely that they are as good as singled out.

For instance, app stores on mobile operating systems with significant market share, as the digital competition policy would target, could only be the app stores run by Apple or Google.

Defenders of the government might argue that it is hardly Australia’s fault that all the technology infrastructure of the 21st century is American-owned and operated. It is simply a coincidence, therefore, that regulation targeting the tech sector targets US firms.

This argument rings hollow. Our heavily and indulgently regulated and taxed economy has made it incredibly difficult to build and sustain world-beating technology firms here.

Both sides of politics have been arguing for a decade about reform that might moderate our globally high corporate taxes.

Then there are the technology-specific laws – such as mandatory data retention and the encryption and access rules that give law enforcement the power to compel technology companies to give access to encrypted communications – that make it legally hazardous to build technology in Australia.

So it is a bit rich to feign confusion that the US is so entrepreneurial in technology relative to Australia when we systematically penalise firms that do well. It is Australia’s fault that young Australian technologists and entrepreneurs have to go overseas for the best job markets.

This new Trump policy is as much of a challenge to the opposition as the government.

It is underappreciated how much of the technology regulations being pushed by the government originated under the Coalition.

The eSafety commissioner began as the children’s e-safety commissioner under Tony Abbott, and was given its predictably expanded mandate under Malcolm Turnbull.

Likewise, the misinformation bill, the media bargaining code, and the digital competition changes all began their life as Morrison government initiatives.

And those policies they did not initiate, they have supported anyway. The opposition rolled over immediately on the under-16 social media ban.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton should be careful not to remind the Republican administration of all this history. He has not made technology policy a focus of the Coalition’s campaign. So the Trump policy statement over the weekend is an opportunity.

The correct response to an “America first” international economic order is to restructure the Australian economy so that it can be competitive. We don’t even need a full DOGE to do it.

One reason these bipartisan technology regulations have been so galling is they’ve been introduced during a political stalemate on the basic things we need to do to grow the economy and increase productivity: reduce red and green tape, remove barriers to employment, cut tax rates.

Ultimately, the Trump administration is right. We have been free-riding on the American technology sector. The first thing we should do is stop penalising them. The second thing we should do is to stop penalising ourselves.

Dynamic Competition and Digital Platforms: Submission to the Australian Treasury Consultation on a New Digital Competition Regime

With Darcy W. E. Allen, Dirk Auer, Aaron M. Lane, Geoffrey A. Manne, Jason Potts, Lazar Radic

Executive Summary: The Australian Treasury’s proposed competition regime for digital platforms is flawed and should not proceed.

The policy rationale for an ex ante regime is unjustified. The Competition and Consumer Act 2010 (CCA) already provides a comprehensive framework to address concerns such as market power, unfair contract terms, and self-preferencing. The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has not demonstrated any compelling reason existing competition laws are insufficient to regulate digital platforms and has not sought to enforce them against digital platforms.

The proposed regime is based on a misunderstanding of competition in the digital economy. Digital markets are characterised by dynamic competition, where innovation and technological change are the primary drivers of consumer welfare. The proposed ex ante regime, with its focus on static competition, may dampen innovation incentives and create barriers to technology diffusion, harming Australian consumers and businesses in the long run. Competition policy for digital platforms should be based on a dynamic competition approach that fosters innovation.

The proposed regulatory mechanisms are problematic. The reliance on subordinate legislation for crucial policy decisions is inappropriate, reducing parliamentary oversight. This approach lacks transparency and accountability, and may lead to unintended consequences for the digital economy.

We urge the Australian Treasury to reconsider its approach to regulating digital platforms. Instead of imposing an ex ante regime, the focus should be on enforcing existing competition laws and fostering a dynamic environment of innovation. This approach would better serve Australia’s long-term economic interests and the continued growth of the digital sector.

Available in PDF here.

Policy Without Policymaking: Australia’s New Digital Competition Regime Is Primarily Designed to Get Through Parliament

With Aaron M Lane. Published at Truth on the Market

The Australian government’s announcement earlier this month of a proposed new competition regime for digital marketplaces has a long history.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has been investigating digital-market competition for nearly a decade. The latest iteration of the ACCC’s digital platforms inquiry has published nine interim reports, with a tenth report to come. A previous iteration of the inquiry also released its own issues paper, preliminary report, and final report.

The current Australian Labor Party government is soon heading to the polls after its first term in office. The proposed new regime is likely to be a small but significant part of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s election pitch. This whole process was, however, instigated by the previous conservative Liberal National Coalition government. This bipartisan momentum reflects a persistent drive toward a more interventionist regulatory approach in digital markets.

The proposals that have come out of this process to date have been case studies in policy incoherence. The case of the News Media Bargaining Code, which had its origins in the first ACCC platform inquiry, is a particular example of incoherence in the aid of naked self-interest: it is no more than an expropriation from a politically disfavored sector (tech) to a politically favored sector (traditional media).

The government’s latest proposal requires one to accept some bold logic. The argument goes something like this:

  1. There are a few global digital platforms with significant market power (where the relevant market is both static and narrowly defined); 
  2. This power allows digital platforms to either unilaterally increase consumer costs (notwithstanding many digital platforms providing zero-price services to their end users), or to do things like self-preferencing and locking consumers into particular hardware or software systems (ignoring pro-innovation incentives and pro-consumer effects);
  3. Enforcement is difficult, because technological development and adoption occur quickly, but court proceedings against digital platforms are lengthy and slow (notwithstanding the absence of a single example of regulatory competition enforcement against digital platforms in Australia); and therefore
  4. Australia needs an ex-ante system of anticipatory rules rather than an ex-post system that judges conduct following actual evidence of harm.   

Let’s just accept all of that for now. What does the proposed new regime actually require? 

The government proposes to designate particular digital platforms that have a “critical position in the Australian economy” using quantitative criteria similar to those in the European Union’s Digital Markets Act (i.e., turnover and user numbers) as well as qualitative criteria (for “flexibility”).

Once designated, the digital platforms would be subject to general obligations around anticompetitive conduct and unfair dealing that (presumably) go above and beyond what exists in Australia’s economy-wide competition law, as well as specific obligations that have been tailor-written to apply to particular digital platforms. 

The whole idea here is that Australia is a “fast follower” of international platform regulation. But at the same time, the approach is relatively novel. Parliament will be asked to approve a general legislative regime that specifies the role of the ACCC, the process for designation, the general obligations imposed on all designated services, and a first-pass list of the types of platforms that could be designated. The Department of the Treasury suggests that everything from app marketplaces to operating systems, web browsers, search engines, cloud-computing services, and “virtual assistants” might be listed in the legislation.

This is an enormous swathe of the digital economy. And it is designed to expand. Once the legislation is implemented, the government will be able to add to it without legislative amendment. It is marketed as “ex-ante” regulation but there is something quite “ex-post” about it, as the regulatory target can be identified later without any of the usual procedures for finding that it has engaged in anticompetitive behavior or caused consumer harm.

Once a type of service is listed, which firms reach the size and significance to be designated under the regime is up to a government minister (presumably the treasurer) following advice from the ACCC. The ACCC and the government would then develop service-specific rules to which designated firms would be subject. For example, the government might require app stores to allow applications to host their own in-app payments without going through the app store’s payment platform.

While the designation of a firm is up to the minister, the rules that designated services have to abide by will be implemented as subordinate legislation (typically described as “regulation”). Under Australia’s parliamentary system, Parliament has the right to “disallow”—that is, veto—the regulation. Such vetoes do occur, but not that often.

Treasury claims that the government’s “hybrid” approach—half legislative, half regulatory, with the potential for parliamentary disallowance—is structurally inspired by the Digital Competition Bill currently being considered by the Indian government. That legislation has, however, been pushed to next year, amid apparent disagreements within the Indian public service as to its scope and structure.

And while the government has clearly spent a lot of time trying to build a model that has both parliamentary oversight and regulatory flexibility (the flexibility here is all for the government, of course—not for participants in the digital economy), the scope of its ambitions is enormous. The political goal is clear: it is the first stage toward implementing the enormous body of recommendations of the ACCC’s last decade of work on digital platforms at the lowest possible political cost. The strategy shunts the actual policy decisions (that is, what are digital platforms in Australia allowed to do?) to regulation. 

It’s worth pointing out that Australia is a Westminster-style system of government, where the executive is drawn from and responsible to the Parliament. The proposed model hands significant power to executive regulatory agencies more typically found in direct executive systems (with quite different checks and balances, such as formal rulemaking processes).  

The fact that the rules will be subject to disallowance by the Senate is of little comfort. Indeed, the whole purpose of this structure is driven by the assumption that Parliament is unable, or unwilling, to seriously investigate the complexities of regulating the digital economy.

One of two things will happen. The Senate might waive through the vast majority of the government’s obligations, as it does with most subordinate legislation, in which case the legislative body will be handing enormous policy control over digital platforms to the ACCC and the government. Alternatively, the Senate might scrutinize these novel obligations carefully, in which case it ought to be capable of making such consequential policy decisions itself.

Nor is it entirely true to say that everything the government does under the proposed regime here is reviewable by Parliament. The government is considering giving the ACCC the power to specify “technical” rules in the implementation of the obligations. Treasury says this is broadly consistent with other regimes, such as the Gas Market Code. But in digital markets, technical rules are policy rules: the choice of standards and requirements around things like interoperability can easily favor one incumbent over another, or otherwise distort market competition.

The primary purpose of the Australian government’s proposed competition framework is to get through Parliament. It is not a policy proposal per se. We can surmise what policies it might enable—Treasury provides a few examples of what could be implemented to regulate app stores and ad markets, and the ACCC inquiries have an encyclopedic list of complaints and suggestions—but those are just examples. 

In practice, this proposed framework pushes the hard policy choices about the digital economy onto future regulators and ministers who are willing to play chicken with the parliamentary-disallowance process.

Dutton is losing the debate over nuclear energy right when we need it for AI

Published in Crikey

Peter Dutton is losing the debate over nuclear power. Even the pro-nuclear Financial Review agrees, which ran an editorial last week wondering where the Coalition’s details were. And the Coalition’s proposal for the government to own the nuclear industry has made it look more like election boondoggle than visionary economic reform. 

It is starting to look like a big missed opportunity. 

Because in 2024, the question facing Australian governments is not only how to transition from polluting energy sources to non-polluting sources. It is also how to set up an economic and regulatory framework to service what is likely to be massive growth in electricity demand over the next decade.

The electrification revolution is part of that demand, with, for instance, the growing adoption of electric vehicles. But the real shadow on the horizon is artificial intelligence. The entire global economy is embedding powerful, power-hungry AI systems into every platform and every device. To the best of our knowledge, the current generation of AI follows a simple scaling law: the more data and the more powerful the computers processing that data, the better the AI. 

We should be excited for AI. It is the first significant and positive productivity shock we’ve had in decades. But the industry needs more compute, and more compute needs more energy.

That’s why Microsoft is working to reopen Three Mile Island — yes, that Three Mile Island — and has committed to purchasing all the electricity from the revived reactor to supply its AI and data infrastructure needs. Oracle plans to use three small nuclear reactors to power a massive new data centre. Amazon Web Services is buying and plans to significantly grow a data centre next to a nuclear plant in Pennsylvania

Then there’s OpenAI. The New York Times reports that one of the big hurdles for OpenAI in opening US data centres is a lack of adequate electricity supply. The company is reportedly planning to build half a dozen data centres that would each consume as much electricity as the entire city of Miami. It is no coincidence that OpenAI chief Sam Altman has also invested in nuclear startups.

One estimate suggests that data centres could consume 9% of US electricity by 2030.

Dutton, to his credit, appears to understand this. His speech to the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA) last week noted that nuclear would help “accommodate energy intensive data centres and greater use of AI”. 

But the Coalition’s mistake has been to present nuclear (alongside a mixture of renewables) as the one big hairy audacious plan to solve our energy challenge. They’ve even selected the sites! Weird to do that before you’ve even figured out how to pay for the whole thing.

Nuclear is not a panacea. It is only appealing if it makes economic sense. Our productivity ambitions demand that energy is abundant, available and cheap. There has been fantastic progress in solar technology, for instance. But it makes no sense to eliminate nuclear as an option for the future. When the Howard government banned nuclear power generation in 1998, it accidentally excluded us from competing in the global AI data centre gold rush 26 years later.

Legalising nuclear power in a way that makes it cost effective is the sort of generational economic reform Australian politicians have been seeking for decades. I say in a way that makes it cost effective because it is the regulatory superstructure laid on top of nuclear energy globally that accounts for many of the claims that nuclear is uneconomic relative to other renewable energy sources. 

A Dutton government would have to not only amend the two pieces of legislation that specifically exclude nuclear power plants from being approved, but also establish dedicated regulatory commissions and frameworks and licencing schemes to govern the new industry — and in a way that encouraged nuclear power to be developed, not blocked. And all of this would have to be pushed through a presumably sceptical Parliament. 

That would be a lot of work, and it would take time. But I’ve been hearing that nuclear power is “at least 10 to 20 years away” for the past two decades. Allowing (not imposing) nuclear as an option in Australia’s energy mix would be our first reckoning with the demands of the digital economy.

DAOs are adaptive governance engines

With Darcy WE Allen, Aaron M Lane, and Jason Potts. Available at SSRN.

Abstract: We develop a new theory of Decentralised Autonomous Organisations (DAOs) that explains why they exist in terms of what they do. In New Institutional Economics, firms exist because they minimise the transaction costs of using a market. DAOs, which are a species of firm but made of smart contracts, would prima facie seem to extend this logic to further economise on lower transaction costs. Our argument here is that this is almost correct, but misses a critical factor that becomes readily apparent when you actually observe how DAOs behave in the wild, which we do by studying three DAOs-Shapeshift, Uniswap, and Optimism. Our theory is that the value of a DAO largely accrues to the dynamic adaptation in governance that the institutional form affords. DAOs enable low cost and fast change in governance structures in order to adapt to dynamic regulatory, competitive, and financial environments. A DAO is therefore not just a type of automation to distribute and minimise agency costs through token-governed smart contracts, as simple transaction cost theory explains. Rather, a DAO is a mechanism for cheap and fast variation in governance to enable an organisation to adapt to a complex dynamic economic environment. When the benefits of this mechanism exceed the costs we predict the existence of a DAO.

Submission to the Senate Environment and Communications Legislation Committee inquiry into the Communications Legislation Amendment (Combating Misinformation and Disinformation) Bill 2024

With Aaron M Lane. Available in PDF.

Misinformation and disinformation are a perennial concern of democratic discourse. Plato even complained about it. The government is right to identify that the mechanisms for the transmission of mis/disinformation have changed significantly since the advent of social media. The innovation and consumer benefit from social media and digital platforms has been overwhelmingly positive. Nevertheless, it is plausible that the harm and consequences of misinformation have materially increased as a consequence of these changing patterns of transmission. Even if so, this bill is badly misconceived.

We consider here four key reasons why this bill should be withdrawn: the bill presents a significant threat to free speech, the bill delegates too much responsibility to regulators, the bill will undermine trust in public debate, and the bill mischaracterises the misinformation problem.